超流动性 (HYPE) 分析和估值
今天，我们发布了对 Hyperliquid（HYPE）的完整分析和估值。 我们自 Hyperliquid 成立以来，就一直在跟踪该团队的成功和增长率，并对该团队的成功和增长率印象深刻。 我们在今年早些时候启动了一个大头寸，并自那以后一直在积累。 HYPE 如今是我们流动性基金中最大的头寸之一。
我们长期以来一直相信开放式金融，即分布式账本上的每个价值单位都应该具有可互操作、可编程和可组合。 这一思想最清晰的表达之一，就是建立一个允许任何人、在任何地点交易任何资产的协议。 我们认为 Hyperliquid 是迄今为止我们所看到的对这一理念最清晰的体现。
Hyperliquid 是一个垂直集成的第 1 层区块链和去中心化交易所，专为高速交易而构建。 2025 年，Hyperliquid 在约 2.9 万亿美元的交易量中创造了约 8.73 亿美元的收入。 用户从约30.1万增长到约92.3万，并在年末以约60亿美元的未平仓兴趣结束。 如今，Hyperliquid 控制着整个 DeFi 永续合约市场超过 59% 的 OI ，其约 96 亿美元的 OI 超过了所有主要链上竞争对手的总和。
去年，它也开始从 CEX 手中抢夺有意义的市场份额。 每月永续合约交易量现在占币安总量的约17%，而两年前几乎为零，而OI已达到约21%。 这种收益也不仅限于 Binance：相对于所有 CEX 的总和而言，Hyperliquid 在永续合约交易量和 OI 中的份额现在都处于历史新高。
一切交换
Hyperliquid 的核心永续合价和现货业务已经创造了九位数高的年收入，但我们相信几个短期催化剂将继续有意义地复合增长，并帮助其实现我们单一、统一的所有交易所的愿景。
首先，HIP-3 正在积极将平台扩展到加密原生资产之外。 RWA 挂钩的 OI 已超过 29 亿美元，获得正式许可的标普 500 永续合约在第一周的日成交量超过 1 亿美元。 像 TradeXYZ 这 样的部署者市场现在包括石油、黄金、白银、股票指数和个股。 我们预计会有更多专注于特定资产类别或地理区域的部署者出现，这应该会扩大整个平台可交易资产的可寻址范围，从而吸引更多的交易者和交易量。
其次，HIP-4 正在为平台带来预测市场和期权，由于它们采用的是孤立的协议，这些市场和期权一直未能在 DeFi 中找到适合产品的市场。 跨金融产品的投资组合保证金将允许交易者在一个风险引擎内管理跨资产类别的头寸，并有助于推动 HIP-3 和 HIP-4 的采用。 我们预计 HyperEVM 最终将允许贷款协议、结构化产品和其他金融应用直接与 Hyperliquid 的价格和流动性相结合，从而深化整个平台的流动性网络效应。
这些催化剂共同开辟了两条主要的增长途径。 第一种是垂直扩张，进入新的市场，如期权、预测市场和其他使用 Hyperliquid 当前流动性和用户基础的金融产品。 第二是横向扩张到股票、商品、利率和外汇等传统金融资产类别，这大大增加了平台的总可寻址市场。
展望
Hyperliquid 的发展轨迹与Binance的早期发展轨迹相似。 2017 年，Binance 在大约六个月内从一个新贵崛起，成为占主导地位的 CEX。 当时的市场（像现在一样）低估了流动性复合的速度、产品选择和成交量之间的飞轮变得多么强大，以及 BNB 可以捕获的价值。 我们在 2019 年以 10 美元的价格发布了 BNB 报告，当时 Binance 已经被广泛采用和确立。 BNB 目前的交易价约为 563 美元。
Hyperliquid 遵循着类似的剧本 ，但拥有 Binance 所不具备的结构优势。 它是非托管的，执行完全在链上进行，且可验证，收入用于日常代币回购，而不是累积到一个独立的权益层。 它还扩展到了商品、股票、预测市场和期权，并将用户获取（通过构建者代码）外包给社区。
代币与交易所之间的一致性也值得强调。 HYPE 是我们在加密领域见过的最清洁的代币设计之一。 大约 99% 的协议收入用于回购 HYPE，然后将其有效地从流通中移除。 在代币之上没有独立的权益层。 Hyperliquid 从未筹集过外部资本；没有优先股股东或风险投资者对其业务持有竞争性所有权。 该协议的成功直接惠及 HYPE，这确保了团队、用户和代币持有者之间的一致性，因为每个人都参与了同一资产的成功。
我们在完整报告中讨论了去中心化、治理、监管、竞争、坏账和 HyperEVM 的可组合性，但我们认为相对于 HYPE 提供的潜在上升机会，这些风险是可控的。
HYPE 的交易价格约为 63 美元，约为 TTM 收益的 36 倍，包括现已上线的 Coinbase/USDC 协议，约为 30 倍。 根据我们在完整报告中讨论的估值框架和基本情况假设，我们预计到 2028 年的年收益将达到约 80 亿美元，这意味着价格在 20 倍倍的情况下约为 319 美元。
我们相信 Hyperliquid 正在成为万物交易所：一个完全一体化的全天候交易所，能够随时随地交易任何资产，并实现持久的代币价值捕获。
在此处阅读完整的 Hyperliquid 分析和估值报告。
/Investing for the Long Haul
Three years ago, we announced that Spencer Applebaum and Shayon Sengupta had been promoted to Investment Partner.
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