Helium是一项新的加密经济协议，它代表了一种部署和管理无线网络的全新商业模式，其成本约比传统自上而下的电信商业模式低100倍。Helium支持的首个无线技术是LoRaWAN——物联网设备所用的一种热门技术。2019年，Multicoin Capital和USV（联合广场风投）共同领投了Helium公司的C轮融资。
我们在Helium网络发布前就已进行了投资。如今，该网络全球部署的热点数量超过22800个，且还在加速增长。它的发展主要受到硬件生产的制约。最近，Helium社区批准了新硬件制造商，他们将在未来几个月内制造成千上万个热点。
Helium网络的发展受到一种积极反馈回路或“飞轮”的推动。我们来看一些数字。该网络现有约22800个热点，意味着平均每个热点赚得145 HNT或每天赚得4.82 HNT。有一种热点制造商生态系统，可使用的热点低至350美元。根据位置和覆盖质量的差异，不同热点之间的挖矿率明显不同。平均而言，就HNT 6.92美元的市场现价来说，一个新热点大约能在10天内获得回报，如下所示。
随着更多热点加入该网络，挖取HNT越发困难。2019年8月，我们开始在奥斯汀挖取Helium，此时热点通常每天挖取100 HNT。那么，未来平均热点挖矿将有多少？我们来算一下。
去年一月通过HIP-19提议后，新的第三方制造商开始提供可服务于Helium网络的差异化硬件。自此以后，这些制造商提出了巨大的入站需求。这意味着在未来90天内，Helium网络将获得显著发展。
该网络将迅速获得至少30000个热点。假设该网络发展并未使HNT价格上涨，那么新热点平均而言将在约14天内获得回报。
这个平均回报期极具吸引力，也是促使该网络快速发展的原因所在。此外，热点成本一直在下降。2019年我们购买的第一个热点约为500美元，而现在最新一批热点的成本为350美元。通过与第三方制造商的协商，我们预计热点价格将在一年内降到150美元。
如果我们假设该网络在2021年发展到100000个热点，会怎样？到时，平均热点将每日赚得1.1 HNT。假设HNT为统一价格，那么一个新热点大约将在6周内获得回报。
我们暂时不思考该网络发展如此迅速的意义。现在，覆盖地图如下：
该网络发展意味着2021年末该地图可能呈现出如下面貌：
我们有理由做出这样的假设：随着Helium 网络获得越来越多的关注，应用范围越来越广，第二幅地图中的HNT价格将更高。这也意味着Helium热点所有者获得更高的投资回报率，进而推动网络的进一步发展。如果我们假设当该网络增加到100000个热点时，HNT价格翻倍，那么新热点的回报期将仅需23天。
网络发展意味着热点制造商的规模经济增多，这又降低了热点成本。我们有理由预计，热点成本降低的下限约为50美元，这将使回报期缩短至3天，即使网络上已有100000个热点。
因此，这是推动Helium网络发展的经济“飞轮”。
考虑到Helium的用例范围（狗牌追踪器、物联网传感器、仿瓷追踪器、更好用的捕鼠器等），物联网公司在过去十年内试图多次部署这样的网络也就不足为奇了。然而，部署这些网络的商业模式通常总是“阿喀琉斯之踵”。部署足够多，人们甚至在供应商之间展示了正式研究，以了解哪些可用，哪些不可用。
Helium的主要突破在于本文所述的加密经济“飞轮”。这些“飞轮”成功地为早期挖矿者进行了成本补贴，他们在早期构建网络的过程中起到了辅助作用。这项补贴被证明是有效的，因为美国和西区的补贴百分比现在覆盖于Helium网络中。Helium网络下一年将在世界其它地区推行。
Helium协议还将拓展到新的无线技术中（例如5G）。Helium网络将在“飞轮”助力下获得飞速发展，最终覆盖全球电信业。
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