火币全球通用积分（$HT）分析与评估
披露：Multicoin已制定、保持和执行合理设计的书面政策和程序，以识别和有效管理与其投资活动有关的利益冲突。Multicoin Capital拥有HT, HT, BNB, FTT, LEO代币。Multicoin Capital对本报告中所列资产在公开发布后3天内（“无交易期”）遵守“无交易政策”。
由于交易所平台币当前处于有实际需求并且未来存在着巨大机会的地位，它们目前是加密领域最有趣的一个组成部分。此前我们已经发表了一个论点，认为平台币是获得开放金融敞口的最好方式，同时它们具备巨大的增长潜力。交易所做成规模存在着显著的门槛，这也给现有企业提供了一个清晰的竞争优势。该论点已经被最大型交易所的产品水平整合所证明。之前我们更加关注专注于特定衍生产品子集的纯业务、专业化交易所（如BitMEX，Derbit，CME），但现在看到了期货已成功整合到现有交易所（火币，OKEx 和币安都在夺取 BitMEX 期货交易的主导地位）。
交易所也可以灵活利用代币经济，随着时间推移为平台币引入更多用例。实际上我们看到所有交易所运营都采取该做法，它们为代币持有者增加新的产品和整合，而其他（非持币）用户则无法享受。一些例子包括币安的 Launchpad 发行和火币的锁仓及挖矿项目。
我们一直在密切跟踪交易所平台币市场（正如我们在两份币安研究<报告一，报告二>中所指出的那样；并且我们依然持有很大的看多 BNB 仓位），随着对该板块的持续分析，我们发现火币的基础面和当前火币积分（HT）的估值之间存在偏离。经过更深度的挖掘后，我们认为市场误解了火币，同时按照目前的价格，HT 被低估了，主要原因在于东西方之间的信息不对称。
由于多方原因，我们看多 HT，同时它就有以下几个近期、强力的催化剂：
- 火币是广泛接触中国日益浓厚的区块链和加密货币兴趣的最佳方式，中国现在是一个优先发展区块链行业的国家。火币 OTC 交易平台是所有人民币进出通道中流动性最好的，也是中国新用户接触比特币和其他主流加密货币最受欢迎的品牌。
- 与西方流行的观点相反，火币目前的交易量都是真实的，并且它托管的 BTC 比所有的交易所都多（除了 Coinbase）。此外，火币的现货和衍生品交易量排名都是全球第二（仅次于币安），未平仓量全球第二（仅次于Bitmex）。
- 火币似乎正致力于提高透明度，这一点可能有助于消除东西方之间的信息不对称。
- 火币的产品种类在过去两年大幅扩展，其中最引人注目的要数衍生品交易（下文有详细分析）。我们预期火币会持续保持创新，增加更多其他种类的金融产品（如期权，质押服务等）。
- 火币最近开源了火币公链的代码，火币公链由世界级团队Nervos支持，将是世界上首个“合规”交易所公链。
- HT 当前的回购率为 17.8%，在所有平台币中属于最高水平。实际上 HT 的回购率为行业平均水平的4.4 倍。我们认为这是定价错误，火币的回购率应该和同行相一致。例如，LTM 销毁指标表明 HT 的市值应该是$43亿，比当前价格高出345%。
在本报告中，我们调研了火币目前的运营，细数了它的产品和业务历史，它和政府的密切关系及其交易量（主要关注点对点OTC交易，到期和永续合约）。我们也研究了它近期想成为中国金融基础设施服务商所做的努力，主要通过采用 Nervos Muta SDK 技术开发火币链来实现。基于稳定增长的交易量、有吸引力的代币经济学、市场相对定价错误以及中国政府的加持等基本面，我们认为 HT 是加密货币领域最好的风险调整投资机会之一。
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