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具有公开市场流动性的风险投资经济

Tushar Jain
Kyle Samani
2017年8月15日 | 4 Minute Read

传统的风险投资公司通常会投资年轻、快速增长的技术初创公司股权。每项投资都有风险:在得到风投支持的公司中, 75% 没有给予投资者回报。风险投资者依赖于这样一个事实:正确投资的回报不仅足以弥补错误投资损失,还会超出。

风险基金可能会进行 20 项投资:其中 15 项完全没有回报;3 或 4 项可获得 5-10 倍的回报;1 或 2 项的回报率甚至会高达 20-30 倍。尽管 75% 的投资回报率为 0,但基于以上假设,该基金的整体回报率将会达到 2-4 倍。

这种投资组合策略称为“风险投资经济”。投资组合中少数几项投资的巨大回报足以实现整个投资组合的回报。

传统风险基金的投资缺乏流动性。一旦风险投资已投入,必须等到公司出售或首次公开募股(IPO)时,基金才能够获取回报。正因为如此,那些将资金投入风险基金的有限合伙人必须承诺持有 7-13 年。只有少数投资者能够承担得起这样的时间尺度。

由于同样的非流动性限制,风险投资基金一旦投资,就无法改变对投资的看法。即使收到新的信息,风险投资基金也无法清算或减少其投资。

通常情况下,风险基金不会投资于投资组合公司的直接竞争对手,以避免利益冲突(这在私人投资的最后几个阶段会有不同,但通常不会是 A/B/C 轮)。这意味着风投公司在竞争激烈的环境下,在同一个领域只会投资一家公司,即使这个领域足够大,可容纳多家成功公司。风险投资者必须作出选择,Uber 还是 Lyft 。Facebook 还是 Linkedin。Pandora 还是 Spotify。Postmates 还是 Doordash。 这样做蕴藏着很大的风险,因为它没有将分散投资作为对冲风险的一种方式。

一般而言,Multicoin Capital 可两全其美:风险投资经济,但具有公开市场流动性。我们体验了风险投资经济——我们投资于有前景的新生协议,我们的目标是在每一项投资上获得超额回报。但 Multicoin Capital 投资的大部分资产都具有流动性。这意味着我们可改变对某项给定投资的看法。

如果我们认为一笔投资可以获得 10 倍回报,当发现已上涨 2 倍,则视为收益上限变为 2.5 倍,此时我们就可以取走利润。另一方面,如果一笔投资亏损了 50% ,我们可以卖掉,拿回一半本金。许多风险基金试图通过挽救公司来实现这一点,但这通常是一个艰难的过程。当选择减少损失的时候,我们可在一夜之间以最少的麻烦做到这一点。

最重要的是,Multicoin Capital 可以投资于相互竞争的协议,而不必在竞争领域中只挑选一个赢家。这样会极大地降低投资者风险。通常,发现趋势比选择特定赢家更容易。例如,现在有许多智能合约平台:以太坊、NEO、Stratis、Lisk、Aeternity、Tezos、EOS 等。尽管以太坊是当今市场上的领先者,但有很多案例表明智能合约平台不会是赢家通吃的平台,以太坊也可能会被竞争对手取代。因此,如果用以太坊网络 300 亿美元市值 1/100 的估值来投资小型平台,确实有机会。

从历史上看,投资技术趋势意味着投资非流动资产。这会带来风险,因为在技术发展和市场变化的同时,资本却被锁住。加密资产可提供一种独特、新颖的投资组合,结合风险投资风格的上行潜力,但由于资产流动性,它的风险更低,承诺期也更短。换句话说,是具有公开市场流动性的风险投资经济。

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