Hyperliquid (HYPE) Analysis & Valuation
Today, we publish our full analysis and valuation of Hyperliquid (HYPE). We’ve been tracking Hyperliquid since inception and have continued to be impressed by the team’s success and rate of growth. We initiated a large position early this year and have been accumulating since. HYPE today represents one of the largest positions in our liquid fund.
We’ve long believed in Open Finance, the thesis that every unit of value should be interoperable, programmable, and composable on distributed ledgers. One of the clearest expressions of that idea is a protocol that lets anyone, anywhere, trade any asset. We believe Hyperliquid is the clearest instantiation of that idea that we’ve seen to date.
Hyperliquid is a vertically integrated layer 1 blockchain and decentralized exchange purpose-built for high-speed trading. In 2025, Hyperliquid generated ~$873 million in revenue across ~$2.9 trillion in trading volume. It grew from ~301k to ~923k users and ended the year with ~$6 billion in open interest. Today, Hyperliquid controls more than 59% of OI across DeFi perp markets, and its ~$9.6 billion of OI exceeds all major onchain competitors combined.
Last year it also began to take meaningful market share from CEXs. Monthly perps volume is now ~17% of Binance’s, up from effectively zero two years ago, while OI has reached ~21%. The gains aren't confined to Binance either: measured against all CEXs combined, Hyperliquid's share of both perps volume and OI now sits at all-time highs.
The Everything Exchange
Hyperliquid’s core perps and spot business already generates high nine figures of annual revenue, but we believe several near term catalysts will continue to meaningfully compound growth and help move it toward our vision of a single, unified everything exchange.
First, HIP-3 is actively expanding the platform beyond crypto-native assets. RWA-linked OI has passed $2.9 billion, and the officially licensed S&P 500 perp generated more than $100 million in daily volume during its first week. Markets on deployers like TradeXYZ now include oil, gold, silver, equity indices, and individual stocks. We expect more deployers to emerge that specialize in specific asset classes or geographic regions, which should expand the addressable universe of tradable assets across the platform, attracting more traders and volume in the process.
Second, HIP-4 is bringing prediction markets and options to the platform, which have historically failed to find product-market fit in DeFi because they’re on isolated protocols. Portfolio margining across financial products will allow traders to manage positions across asset classes within a single risk engine and should help fuel adoption of both HIP-3 and HIP-4. We expect HyperEVM to eventually allow lending protocols, structured products, and other financial applications to plug directly into Hyperliquid’s prices and liquidity, thus deepening the liquidity network effect across the platform.
Together, these catalysts open up two main avenues for growth. The first is vertical expansion into new markets like options, prediction markets, and other financial products that use Hyperliquid’s current liquidity and user base. The second is horizontal expansion into traditional financial asset classes such as equities, commodities, rates, and FX, which substantially increase the platform’s total addressable market.
Outlook
Hyperliquid’s trajectory looks eerily similar to Binance's early years. In 2017, Binance went from a new upstart to the dominant CEX in approximately six months. The market then (as it is now) underestimated how quickly liquidity compounds, how powerful the flywheel between product selection and volume becomes, and how much value BNB could capture. We published our BNB report at $10 in 2019 when Binance was already widely adopted and entrenched. BNB trades at ~$563 today.
Hyperliquid is following a similar playbook, but with structural advantages Binance didn’t have. It’s non-custodial, execution is fully onchain and verifiable, and revenue is used for daily token buybacks rather than accruing to a separate equity layer. It’s also expanding into commodities, equities, prediction markets, and options, and outsources user acquisition (through builder codes) to the community.
The alignment between the token and the exchange is also worth highlighting. HYPE is one of the cleanest token designs we’ve seen in crypto. Approximately 99% of protocol revenue is used to buy back HYPE, which is then effectively removed from circulation. There’s no separate equity layer sitting above the token. Hyperliquid has never raised outside capital; there are no preferred shareholders or venture investors with competing claims on the business. The protocol’s success accrues directly to HYPE, which ensures alignment between the team, users, and tokenholders since everyone participates in the success of the same asset.
There are certainly real risks around decentralization, governance, regulation, competition, bad debt, and HyperEVM composability, which we address in the full report; however, we believe they’re manageable relative to the potential upside opportunity that HYPE offers.
At ~$63, HYPE trades at roughly 36x TTM earnings, or approximately 30x earnings including the now-live Coinbase/USDC agreement. Under our valuation frameworks and base case assumptions discussed in the full report, we project ~$8 billion in annual earnings by 2028, implying a price of ~$319 at a 20x multiple.
We believe Hyperliquid is becoming the everything exchange: a fully integrated, 24/7 exchange capable of trading any asset, anytime, anywhere, with durable token value capture.
Read the full Hyperliquid analysis and valuation report here.
/Investing for the Long Haul
Three years ago, we announced that Spencer Applebaum and Shayon Sengupta had been promoted to Investment Partner.
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