.avif?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.ctfassets.net%2Fqtbqvna1l0yq%2F4OF6ywwNnbQLmD5qsIQ9kF%2F29aa033b59f51bc65fff3729e6948fe4%2Fkyle_samani__2_.jpg&a=w%3D200%26h%3D200%26fm%3Davif%26q%3D75&cd=2022-11-22T17%3A01%3A36.181Z)
今年8月，我们发表了一篇关于瑞波(Ripple)网络原生代币瑞波币(XRP)的分析。对XRP代币我们持看跌态度。简要总结如下： 建立和维护瑞波网络的瑞波公司(Ripple, Inc.)已经建立了一个基于区块链的系统，银行可以使用该系统发行借据和结算债务。XRP有两种用途：在瑞波网络上支付费用，以及作为“桥梁货币”在任意两个没有可信关系的机构之间进行价值转移。然而，它的本地代币XRP对于网络的正常运行是完全不必要的。 由于瑞波网络被允许作为其唯一节点列表(UNL)系统的直接结果，所以理性参与者向网络发送垃圾事务的风险很低。摩根大通(JP Morgan)不太可能给美国银行(Bank of America)发送垃圾事务，韩国韩亚金融集团(Hana Group)也不太可能给富达银行(Fidelity)发送垃圾事务。即使这些机构彼此不信任，它们仍然希望彼此开展业务。向其他银行发送垃圾事务毫无意义。 XRP的另一个预期用途是充当“桥梁货币”：如果出现两家金融机构需要用当地货币结算借据的情况，债务人如何获得债权人的当地货币？许多货币对并没有表现出巨大的交易量，比方说肯尼亚元对韩元就是如此。虽然大多数货币对相对于美元-欧元的交易量并不大，但货币对的长尾组合在实际中是增长的，为n!的函数。鉴于全球有180种法定货币，大约应有1.6万货币对。 如今，这个问题通常通过做市商来解决，因为美元是全球储备货币，做市商提供每种货币对美元的流动性。瑞波公司建议金融机构使用瑞波网络和XRP来解决这个问题，而不是使用传统的银行基础设施和美元。 与传统的金融基础设施相比，瑞波网络作为支付轨道系统更为优越。然而，推测理性的金融机构会自愿将XRP作为一种储备货币来结算交易，这就有些想当然了，因为从定义上讲，XRP的流动性永远低于比特币(BTC)这样的全球储备货币。无论底层技术基础设施的质量如何，全球储备货币最重要的一个属性就是流动性。这就是为什么美元拥有至高无上的统治地位：从定义上讲，世界上最大的经济体对大多数货币对拥有最大的流动性。 考虑到XRP在过去3-4个月的持续快速增长，我们决定重新审视我们最初的论点。上个月，我们采访了主要国际汇款公司、传统资产管理公司、商业银行和投资银行的区块链负责人。采访对象均对瑞波的解决方案和XRP进行了评估。上述所有被访机构都在某种程度上使用了该系统，而且所有人都独立得出了以下相同的结论：如果他们的机构使用瑞波网络来结算交易——他们认为这不太可能——他们会希望使用全球储备货币用于结算，而不是XRP。这类全球储备货币更有可能是BTC、比特币现金(BCH)或以太币(ETH)，因为这些都是无许可金融体系，并且已经在面对来自世界各地消费者和企业的巨大本土需求。指望XRP作为一种只有银行才能大量使用的许可货币，其流动性将超过数十亿人使用的全球储备货币，这根本没有道理。 货币对之间的流动性差异是巨大的。在过去30天里，BTC的日均交易量略低于100亿美元，而XRP的日均交易量约为5亿美元。随着BTC成为一个全球性、抗审查的价值储存工具，这种差距可能还会扩大。 瑞波公司意识到了这个问题：他们最近推出了一个流动性计划。由于瑞波公司拥有XRP总供应量的约2/3——根据目前的现货价格，其隐含估值为450 - 500亿美元——他们有意对其服务大幅打折，以吸引客户使用XRP而不是BTC。可是，这种流动性毕竟只是人为的。它是会枯竭的。这将在短期内维持XRP的流动性下限，但该计划无法提供超过全球储备所需的流动性。 遗憾的是，对于XRP持有者来说，XRP成为全球储备货币的前景日趋渺茫。全球最大的两家期货交易所——芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)和芝加哥商品交易所(CME)——刚刚推出了比特币期货交易。这一发展的影响规模无论怎么强调都不为过。这阻碍了XRP成为全球储备货币的机会。 对于大型金融机构来说，除了可能的托管外，加密货币最大的一个问题是价格波动。而期货可以用来对冲价格风险。未来几个月，随着这些期货市场趋于成熟，银行将能够购买并持有价值数十亿美元的比特币，同时对冲价格波动风险。 鉴于此，怎么可能还会有理性的金融机构希望使用XRP作为桥梁货币来结算交易呢？BTC现在有两个巨大的优势：约20倍的流动性，以及允许银行在持有大量BTC的同时对冲价格风险的期货市场。看涨XRP的人士反驳说，相比BTC，XRP能提供更快的结算时间和更低的费用。这是事实，但无关紧要。流动性的价值和对冲价格风险的能力，远比这两个相对无关紧要的技术细节重要得多。 所以为什么XRP在持续增长？在整个加密领域，瑞波团队堪称佼佼者。为瑞波公司提供资金支持的风险资本投资者是一流的。他们在继续宣布新的银行合作伙伴。我深信这些银行会使用瑞波的软件，并尝试使用XRP。但是…… 我们坚持我们的立场：从长期来看，我们看跌XRP。我们确实没有看到任何可能导致金融机构自愿在全球储备之上采用XRP的前提条件。话虽如此，考虑到目前加密市场的状况，XRP可能会继续增长。考虑到XRP所面临的固有的流通速度问题，目前对于它还没有一个很好的客观评价模型，所以在我们的论文反映出XRP价格变动之前，它可能会有5倍的波动。 “短期来看，市场是一台投票机器；长远来看，它是一台称重机。”——沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett) 更新：在《福布斯》(Forbes)上发表这篇文章后，我在Twitter上收到了一些有价值的反馈。我似乎低估了快速交易时间对金融机构的重要性。XRP交易在几秒钟内完成，而比特币交易可能需要一个小时才能完成。这一点之所以重要，是因为快速交易时间允许金融机构尽可能少地在资产负债表上持有XRP，从而将价格风险降至最低。如果XRP像它的许多支持者所主张的那样获得采用，那么这种代币的价值应该随着流通速度的增加而急剧下降。有关流通速度的更多信息，请参阅我的文章《理解代币流通速度》
Disclosure: Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed in this post are solely those of the author(s) in their individual capacity and are not the views of Multicoin Capital Management, LLC or its affiliates (together with its affiliates, “Multicoin”). Certain information contained herein may have been obtained from third-party sources, including from portfolio companies of funds managed by Multicoin. Multicoin believes that the information provided is reliable but has not independently verified the non-material information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. This post may contain links to third-party websites (“External Websites”). The existence of any such link does not constitute an endorsement of such websites, the content of the websites, or the operators of the websites. These links are provided solely as a convenience to you and not as an endorsement by us of the content on such External Websites. The content of such External Websites is developed and provided by others and Multicoin takes no responsibility for any content therein. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in this blog are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.
The content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as the basis for an investment decision, and is not, and should not be assumed to be, complete. The contents herein are not to be construed as legal, business, or tax advice. You should consult your own advisors for those matters. References to any securities or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only, and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by Multicoin, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by Multicoin is available here: https://multicoin.capital/portfolio/. Excluded from this list are investments that have not yet been announced (1) for strategic reasons (e.g., undisclosed positions in publicly traded digital assets) or (2) due to coordination with the development team or issuer on the timing and nature of public disclosure. * This blog does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any limited partner interests in any investment vehicle managed by Multicoin. An offer or solicitation of an investment in any Multicoin investment vehicle will only be made pursuant to an offering memorandum, limited partnership agreement and subscription documents, and only the information in such documents should be relied upon when making a decision to invest.*
Past performance does not guarantee future results. There can be no guarantee that any Multicoin investment vehicle’s investment objectives will be achieved, and the investment results may vary substantially from year to year or even from month to month. As a result, an investor could lose all or a substantial amount of its investment. Investments or products referenced in this blog may not be suitable for you or any other party.
Multicoin has established, maintains and enforces written policies and procedures reasonably designed to identify and effectively manage conflicts of interest related to its investment activities. For more important disclosures, please see the Disclosures and Terms of Use available at https://multicoin.capital/disclosures and https://multicoin.capital/terms.