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Ripple ($XRP) 分析

Kyle Samani
Tushar Jain
2017年8月31日 | 5 Minute Read

关于瑞波($XRP)的分析摘要如下文。下载我们的完整报告(12页)。

报告摘要

瑞波(Ripple)是一种用于银行间结算的区块链协议。与其他许多区块链不同,瑞波旨在与现有机构合作,提高在全球范围内快速处理任何资产的能力。虽然瑞波协议有一个原生加密货币 XRP,但是该货币只用于支付瑞波网络的交易费。它可以用于其他情况,但是银行可以选择直接在瑞波网络上用任何资产(包括美元、欧元以及其他法定货币)办理借据(IOU)。瑞波最初被设计为一种后端基础设施工具,用于促进银行间去中心化的资产交易。 瑞波协议由瑞波公司(Ripple Inc)开发和维护,该公司是一家位于美国,筹集了超过 9,300 万美元风险资金的 C 类公司。瑞波公司目前控制了绝大部分 XRP 代币,同时对网络有着绝对的控制权,尽管它已经公布了在未来实施民主化政策的计划。这些都是主要的风险。 我们承认支付协议有机会取代传统的银行间网络,但必须分辨一个好的区块链应用与一个好的投资机会。我们认为瑞波协议满足前者,而 XRP 不满足后者。瑞波协议可以影响数万亿美元的经济活动,但这种商业活动却不太可能通过 XRP 实现。XRP 代币除了支付费用之外几乎没有任何核心效用性,因此其价值不太可能与瑞波网络的使用量成正比例增长。

瑞波协议的价值主张

瑞波网络以区块链取代了现有的银行间交易网络——来消除摩擦、加快交易速度和结算时间,并大大降低成本。在很多方面,这是区块链技术完美的一个使用场景。传统系统速度慢、成本高并且容易出错;银行必须相互协作以实现不同内部数据之间的价值转移,使得快速结算交易极其困难。银行通常必须在国外银行开户,并用当地货币作为储备资金(这种银行被称为“我行在他行开的账户”)。账户中的这些资金平常处于闲置状态,直到银行需要用这种货币进行支付,从而造成周转资金的效率低下。而没有资金承担开设多个“我行在他行开的账户”的银行,或者需要用他们账户里面没有的货币币种支付的银行,必须依赖第三方流动性提供商来提供这些资金。这个过程不仅让银行面临交易对手风险,它们的资产往往进行一次转移需要冻结好几天。 瑞波允许银行从一个脱节、基于信任的数据库移植到一个单一的分布式数据库——瑞波账本。这一点使得交易获得传统系统无法取得的流动性和速度,并极大地释放了周转资金。瑞波解决了银行遇到的切实困难,为金融机构解决了一个巨大的难题。

XRP 的效用

交易费用必须用 XRP 支付,账户钱包中必须至少有 20 个 XRP(本文发表时价值约为 4 美元),以便在网络上进行交易。这些机制是为了防止网络垃圾攻击。此外,交易费用会被销毁(它们没有支付给验证节点),使 XRP 成为通货紧缩的货币。最后,XRP 可以用作瑞波网络上即时交易的“桥梁货币”。在这些情况下,XRP 的功能非常类似于任何其他基于区块链的加密货币。银行可以选择在瑞波网络上发行自己的 IOU 支持的资产,或者使用 XRP 发送支付。 虽然瑞波网络允许在单个分布式数据库上快速、全球性地处理 IOU,但这些IOU 必须通过实际的货币转移进行定期结算。如果银行使用 XRP 发送支付,那么结算的速度将比使用现有系统快得多,只要交易双方都有一方愿意接收 XRP,或者立即将其兑换成首选的法定货币。这是一个重要的警告,也是我们对 XRP 持悲观态度的根本原因。

XRP 的风险

跨境结算功能不是 XRP 固有的。银行也可以轻松地使用比特币、以太、DASH或其他加密货币进行实际结算。未来,银行最有可能以基于区块链的法定货币或任何成为全球储备货币的加密货币进行结算。我们认为一种专门用于银行间结算的货币并不具有吸引力,而且实际上可能适得其反,因为它引入了不必要的交易风险。银行希望用被广泛接受且稳定的全球加密储备货币进行 IOU 结算。瑞波公司目前还没有为 XRP 提供完成这一任务的计划。 由于瑞波公司控制着网络服务器,并且持有绝大部分 XRP 代币,因此在目前的形式下,瑞波还面临着重大的中心化风险。再者,许多研究人员对瑞波原生的共识算法的安全性表示了不确定性。我们在报告全文中对这些担忧和风险进行了详细说明。

结论

XRP 目前的网络价值大约为 85 亿美元,该价值还不包括瑞波公司持有的 620 亿枚 XRP 代币。我们认为这个价值的大部分来自于合作伙伴的投机和瑞波公司发布的客户公告。该公司在多个方面取得了重大进展,并持续与全球各地的银行和其它金融机构签署重要的合作伙伴关系。我们意识到瑞波公司提供的服务的伟大价值,也认为银行间结算是区块链技术最合适的使用场景之一。 然而,更加重要的是要意识到,一个很好的区块链技术用途不一定能为这个区块链的原生代币带来价值。在 XRP 的场景中,我们认为该代币除了用作微不足道的交易费用以外,几乎没有任何效用,因此从长远看来,它不太可能维持和创造价值。虽然我们预计随着瑞波公司发布更多的公告,XRP 代币的价格会继续上涨,但我们不认为瑞波协议的设计能为 XRP 带来持续的价值。瑞波公司的确为银行提供了有效的服务,但 XRP 的价值可能有限。基于以上原因,我们对 XRP 目前的价格持看跌态度。

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